{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": { "id": "FJogEfYBOfUm" }, "source": [ "# Temperature Forecasting (Supplementary Notebook)\n", "\n", "Similar to what was done in previous sections, this notebook applies the methodology used in the M5 Forecasting notebook to the Jena Climate dataset. Specifically, we will be forecasting the temperature variable." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": { "id": "olkHffRbOfUr" }, "source": [ "## 1. Jena Climate Dataset\n", "\n", "Let's load the dataset and examine it." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": { "id": "floWkFlxOfUs" }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ "(420551, 15)" ] }, "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "import numpy as np\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "\n", "### CREATE X,Y ####\n", "def create_xy(series, window_size, prediction_horizon, shuffle = False):\n", " x = []\n", " y = []\n", " for i in range(0, len(series)):\n", " if len(series[(i + window_size):(i + window_size + prediction_horizon)]) < prediction_horizon:\n", " break\n", " x.append(series[i:(i + window_size)])\n", " y.append(series[(i + window_size):(i + window_size + prediction_horizon)])\n", " x = np.array(x)\n", " y = np.array(y)\n", " return x,y\n", "\n", "plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = [15, 5]\n", "\n", "np.set_printoptions(precision = 6, suppress = True)\n", "\n", "df = pd.read_csv('../data/jena_climate_2009_2016.csv')\n", "df.shape" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": { "colab": { "base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/", "height": 456 }, "id": "mjsCtvwkOfUt", "outputId": "506c2c09-de24-4f59-956c-55fe6242e08f" }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
\n", " | Date Time | \n", "p (mbar) | \n", "T (degC) | \n", "Tpot (K) | \n", "Tdew (degC) | \n", "rh (%) | \n", "VPmax (mbar) | \n", "VPact (mbar) | \n", "VPdef (mbar) | \n", "sh (g/kg) | \n", "H2OC (mmol/mol) | \n", "rho (g/m**3) | \n", "wv (m/s) | \n", "max. wv (m/s) | \n", "wd (deg) | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | \n", "01.01.2009 00:10:00 | \n", "996.52 | \n", "-8.02 | \n", "265.40 | \n", "-8.90 | \n", "93.3 | \n", "3.33 | \n", "3.11 | \n", "0.22 | \n", "1.94 | \n", "3.12 | \n", "1307.75 | \n", "1.03 | \n", "1.75 | \n", "152.3 | \n", "
1 | \n", "01.01.2009 00:20:00 | \n", "996.57 | \n", "-8.41 | \n", "265.01 | \n", "-9.28 | \n", "93.4 | \n", "3.23 | \n", "3.02 | \n", "0.21 | \n", "1.89 | \n", "3.03 | \n", "1309.80 | \n", "0.72 | \n", "1.50 | \n", "136.1 | \n", "
2 | \n", "01.01.2009 00:30:00 | \n", "996.53 | \n", "-8.51 | \n", "264.91 | \n", "-9.31 | \n", "93.9 | \n", "3.21 | \n", "3.01 | \n", "0.20 | \n", "1.88 | \n", "3.02 | \n", "1310.24 | \n", "0.19 | \n", "0.63 | \n", "171.6 | \n", "
3 | \n", "01.01.2009 00:40:00 | \n", "996.51 | \n", "-8.31 | \n", "265.12 | \n", "-9.07 | \n", "94.2 | \n", "3.26 | \n", "3.07 | \n", "0.19 | \n", "1.92 | \n", "3.08 | \n", "1309.19 | \n", "0.34 | \n", "0.50 | \n", "198.0 | \n", "
4 | \n", "01.01.2009 00:50:00 | \n", "996.51 | \n", "-8.27 | \n", "265.15 | \n", "-9.04 | \n", "94.1 | \n", "3.27 | \n", "3.08 | \n", "0.19 | \n", "1.92 | \n", "3.09 | \n", "1309.00 | \n", "0.32 | \n", "0.63 | \n", "214.3 | \n", "
5 | \n", "01.01.2009 01:00:00 | \n", "996.50 | \n", "-8.05 | \n", "265.38 | \n", "-8.78 | \n", "94.4 | \n", "3.33 | \n", "3.14 | \n", "0.19 | \n", "1.96 | \n", "3.15 | \n", "1307.86 | \n", "0.21 | \n", "0.63 | \n", "192.7 | \n", "
6 | \n", "01.01.2009 01:10:00 | \n", "996.50 | \n", "-7.62 | \n", "265.81 | \n", "-8.30 | \n", "94.8 | \n", "3.44 | \n", "3.26 | \n", "0.18 | \n", "2.04 | \n", "3.27 | \n", "1305.68 | \n", "0.18 | \n", "0.63 | \n", "166.5 | \n", "
7 | \n", "01.01.2009 01:20:00 | \n", "996.50 | \n", "-7.62 | \n", "265.81 | \n", "-8.36 | \n", "94.4 | \n", "3.44 | \n", "3.25 | \n", "0.19 | \n", "2.03 | \n", "3.26 | \n", "1305.69 | \n", "0.19 | \n", "0.50 | \n", "118.6 | \n", "
8 | \n", "01.01.2009 01:30:00 | \n", "996.50 | \n", "-7.91 | \n", "265.52 | \n", "-8.73 | \n", "93.8 | \n", "3.36 | \n", "3.15 | \n", "0.21 | \n", "1.97 | \n", "3.16 | \n", "1307.17 | \n", "0.28 | \n", "0.75 | \n", "188.5 | \n", "
9 | \n", "01.01.2009 01:40:00 | \n", "996.53 | \n", "-8.43 | \n", "264.99 | \n", "-9.34 | \n", "93.1 | \n", "3.23 | \n", "3.00 | \n", "0.22 | \n", "1.88 | \n", "3.02 | \n", "1309.85 | \n", "0.59 | \n", "0.88 | \n", "185.0 | \n", "
\n", " | p (mbar) | \n", "T (degC) | \n", "Tpot (K) | \n", "Tdew (degC) | \n", "rh (%) | \n", "VPmax (mbar) | \n", "VPact (mbar) | \n", "VPdef (mbar) | \n", "sh (g/kg) | \n", "H2OC (mmol/mol) | \n", "rho (g/m**3) | \n", "wv (m/s) | \n", "max. wv (m/s) | \n", "wd (deg) | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | \n", "996.52 | \n", "-8.02 | \n", "265.40 | \n", "-8.90 | \n", "93.30 | \n", "3.33 | \n", "3.11 | \n", "0.22 | \n", "1.94 | \n", "3.12 | \n", "1307.75 | \n", "1.03 | \n", "1.75 | \n", "152.3 | \n", "
6 | \n", "996.50 | \n", "-7.62 | \n", "265.81 | \n", "-8.30 | \n", "94.80 | \n", "3.44 | \n", "3.26 | \n", "0.18 | \n", "2.04 | \n", "3.27 | \n", "1305.68 | \n", "0.18 | \n", "0.63 | \n", "166.5 | \n", "
12 | \n", "996.63 | \n", "-8.85 | \n", "264.57 | \n", "-9.70 | \n", "93.50 | \n", "3.12 | \n", "2.92 | \n", "0.20 | \n", "1.82 | \n", "2.93 | \n", "1312.11 | \n", "0.16 | \n", "0.50 | \n", "158.3 | \n", "
18 | \n", "996.87 | \n", "-8.84 | \n", "264.56 | \n", "-9.69 | \n", "93.50 | \n", "3.13 | \n", "2.92 | \n", "0.20 | \n", "1.83 | \n", "2.93 | \n", "1312.37 | \n", "0.07 | \n", "0.25 | \n", "129.3 | \n", "
24 | \n", "997.05 | \n", "-9.23 | \n", "264.15 | \n", "-10.25 | \n", "92.20 | \n", "3.03 | \n", "2.79 | \n", "0.24 | \n", "1.74 | \n", "2.80 | \n", "1314.62 | \n", "0.10 | \n", "0.38 | \n", "203.9 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
420522 | \n", "1002.08 | \n", "-1.40 | \n", "271.59 | \n", "-6.10 | \n", "70.20 | \n", "5.51 | \n", "3.87 | \n", "1.64 | \n", "2.40 | \n", "3.86 | \n", "1282.68 | \n", "1.08 | \n", "1.68 | \n", "207.5 | \n", "
420528 | \n", "1001.42 | \n", "-2.15 | \n", "270.90 | \n", "-7.08 | \n", "68.77 | \n", "5.21 | \n", "3.59 | \n", "1.63 | \n", "2.23 | \n", "3.58 | \n", "1285.50 | \n", "0.79 | \n", "1.24 | \n", "184.3 | \n", "
420534 | \n", "1001.05 | \n", "-2.61 | \n", "270.47 | \n", "-6.97 | \n", "71.80 | \n", "5.04 | \n", "3.62 | \n", "1.42 | \n", "2.25 | \n", "3.61 | \n", "1287.20 | \n", "0.77 | \n", "1.64 | \n", "129.1 | \n", "
420540 | \n", "1000.51 | \n", "-3.22 | \n", "269.90 | \n", "-7.63 | \n", "71.40 | \n", "4.81 | \n", "3.44 | \n", "1.38 | \n", "2.14 | \n", "3.44 | \n", "1289.50 | \n", "0.85 | \n", "1.54 | \n", "207.8 | \n", "
420546 | \n", "1000.07 | \n", "-4.05 | \n", "269.10 | \n", "-8.13 | \n", "73.10 | \n", "4.52 | \n", "3.30 | \n", "1.22 | \n", "2.06 | \n", "3.30 | \n", "1292.98 | \n", "0.67 | \n", "1.52 | \n", "240.0 | \n", "
70092 rows × 14 columns
\n", "